The spatial resolution of exposure data is one of the components of a seismic risk
model that can have a substantial impact on the accuracy and reliability of seismic loss
estimates. While several studies have investigated the influence of the geographical detail of
urban exposure data in earthquake loss models, implications at the regional scale have so far
been less explored. This study uses the exposure model of the European Seismic Risk Model
2020 to investigate the effects of exposure resolution on probabilistic seismic losses by
simulating dozens of exposure and site models (630 models) representing a wide range of
assumptions related to the geo-resolution of the locations of the exposed assets and the
associated site conditions. Losses are examined in terms of portfolio average annual loss
(AAL) and losses at different return periods at national and sub-national levels. Results
indicate that neglecting the uncertainty related to asset locations and their associated site
conditions within an exposure model can lead to significant bias in the risk results. The
analyses also demonstrate that the accuracy of the estimated losses can be improved by
either disaggregating exposure to a grid or weighting/relocating exposure sites and their
amplification properties using a density map of the built areas.

Conference Title

The Third European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology

Conference Country

Romania

Conference Date

Sept. 4, 2022 - Sept. 9, 2022

Conference Sponsor

Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest (UTCB) and National Institute for Earth Physics (INFP)