J. Dabbeek, H. Crowley, V. Silva, S. Ozcebe

Occupancy patterns have been known to strongly affect the number of people killed by earthquakes. In the existing generation of exposure models for Europe, the number of occupants represents the average over a 24-hour period, based on the census population. Hence they do not account for the daily movement of the population between the place of residence (residential occupancy) and places of economic activity (non-residential occupancy) or the monthly patterns resulting from tourism. This paper presents a framework to upgrade exposure models from static to ‘dynamic’, i.e. allowing the input population to change in time and space based on daily and monthly population movement patterns. Open-source population data is used to disaggregate and rescale occupants inside residential, commercial and industrial buildings of 28 European countries resulting in 24 occupancy levels: two times (i.e. day and night) x 12 months at 30 arcseconds resolution. The static vs dynamic exposure models are compared using the number and distribution of fatalities resulting from scenario loss calculations for a stochastic set of earthquakes generated from the European Seismic Hazard model (ESHM20). The ability to capture population distribution during the day and night or seasonal changes  (winter vs summer) is a feature that can advance the ongoing rapid damage/loss assessment services in Europe and consequently support emergency response planning.

Conference Title

The 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (WCEE2024)

Conference Country

Palestine

Conference Date

June 30, 2024 - July 5, 2024

Conference Sponsor

عدد من المؤسسات الدولية

Additional Info

Conference Website