Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 48

18-20 April 2014

 

 

Background

Peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis stopped because Israel did not release, by the end of March, the last group of pre-Oslo prisoners as agreed upon between the two sides under the auspices of the United States. John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, made several attempts to bring back the two sides to resume negotiations which were scheduled to end by the end of April.  

Since Israel did not release the fourth group of the pre-Oslo prisoners, the Palestinian Authority submitted applications to join a group of United Nations organizations and bodies.

Israel threatened Palestinians with stopping the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority if the Palestinian Authority continues to submit applications to join United Nations organizations and bodies.

Division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip still persists while each side adheres to its convictions and there are no signs that the division will end.

 

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 48 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 18-20 April 2014. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion on the new political realities on the Palestinian ground including the Palestinian Israeli negotiations, Prof. Rami Hamdallah’s government, the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and local council elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

 

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 1.91% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

 

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

 

 

The General Results:

• 65.4% of respondents expected the return of Palestinians and Israelis to negotiations under American auspices; 27.1% expected the opposite.
• 54.7% of respondents supported the return of Palestinians to negotiations; 42.1% rejected
• 41.3% of respondents supported the extension of negotiations until the end of the current year; 52.5% rejected
• 87.9% of respondents expected the failure of negotiations if they are extended until the end of this year; 21.6% expected them to succeed.
• 64.2% of respondents expected Israel to release the last group of prisoners who were supposed to be released at the end of March; 27.8% expected the opposite.
• 51.6% of respondents supported continuing negotiations if Israel releases the last group of prisoners; 44.7% rejected.
• 79.6% of respondents supported the Palestinian Authority’s decision to join international organizations.
• 71% of respondents supported the Palestinian Authority’s decision to proceed in joining international organizations even if Israel releases the last group of prisoners.
• 75.5% of respondents saw that the Israeli side is responsible for stopping negotiations; 5.5% saw that it is the Palestinian side.
• 63.5% of respondents expected the USA to intervene and to exert pressure on some sides to lead the negotiation to a successful end.
• From among respondents who supported an intervention by the USA to exert pressure on some sides to lead these negotiations to a successful end, 60.8% expected the pressure to be exerted on the Palestinian side; 13.9% expected it to be exerted on the Israeli side while 24.3% expected it to be on both sides.
• 25.9% of respondents saw that the USA is serious this time in leading the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to a successful end.
• 11.1% of respondents considered the US an honest arbitrator between the two sides of conflict.
• 88% of respondents looked at the US policy towards the Palestinian issue as generally biased towards the Israeli side; 2.6% said that it is biased towards the Palestinian side while 6% said that it is neutral.
• 68.1% of respondents supported adding other countries to the auspices of the negotiations besides the United States.
• 76.1% of respondents expected Israel to impose economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority if negotiations fail.
• 80.4% of respondents supported conducting a referendum among Palestinians before signing any peace agreement with Israel; 14.2% rejected. 
• 37.9% of respondents supported reaching a provisional agreement similar to that of the Oslo Accord as a result of these negotiations; 54.1% rejected.
• 50.7% of respondents supported the two-state solution provided that there will be a Palestinian state living side by side with Israel; 45.2% rejected.
• 31.3% of respondents supported the one-state solution in which both Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal rights; 62.8% rejected
• 26.8% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards the success of the peace process between the PA and Israel; 68.7% said that they are pessimistic
• 62.9% of respondents expected the outbreak of a third intifada (uprising) in the West Bank in case the current peace negotiations fail.
• 42.9% of respondents supported the rise of an armed uprising (intifada) in the West Bank; 51.5% rejected.
• 56% of respondents supported the rise of a nonviolent, unarmed popular uprising (intifada); 37.4% rejected.
• 33.3% of respondents supported dissolving the Palestinian Authority in case the current peace negotiations fail; 59.3% rejected.
• 49.2% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards implementing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement in the near future; 46% said they are pessimistic.
• 64.2% of respondents believed that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate conducting a national reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas.
• 54.6% of respondents believed that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is capable of managing people’s affairs in the West Bank if Israel imposes economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority; 31.1% expected the opposite.
• 57.3% of respondents expected the fall of the PA in case enough funds become unavailable.
• 66.2% of respondents saw that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is more capable of managing the internal Palestinian affairs while 17.1% saw that Ismail Haniyeh’s government is more capable.
• 76.6% of respondents assessed the performance of Prof. Hamdallah’s governments as “good”.
• 31.7% of respondents assessed the performance of Ismail Haniyeh’s governments as “good”.
• 80.1% of respondents supported conducting the coming presidential elections after ending the division; 12.8% supported conducting them despite division.
• 80.4% of respondents supported conducting the coming legislative elections after ending the division; 12.4% supported conducting them despite division.
• 44.6% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
• 80.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.2% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 11.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.

• 80.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.7% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 12.2% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 44% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 14.2% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 83% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 30.6% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 10.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 10.3% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.

• In case PLC elections will be conducted, 31.5% of respondents preferred conducting elections on the basis of electoral lists; 28.9% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.
• 30% of respondents preferred conducting local council and municipality elections on the basis of electoral lists; 33% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.
• 34.4% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.

• 50.1% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 62.3% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 74.1% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

 

People’s Party

0.9%

Democratic Front

0.8%

Islamic Jihad

1.8%

Fateh

34.2%

Hamas

10.8%

Fida

0.4%

Popular Front

3.2%

Palestinian National Initiative

0.8%

I am an independent nationalist

7.1%

I am an independent Islamist

2.6%

None of the above

37.2%

Others

0.6%

Title

Opinion Polls and Survey Studies Center

Publisher

An-Najah National University

Publisher Country

Palestine

Publication Type

Both (Printed and Online)

Volume

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Year

2014

Pages

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